Yesterday Howard talked briefly about the fact that Chairman Kevin Martin said that the FCC will not allow XM and Sirius to merge. (I have been predicting for some time that they will merge soon.)
FCC Bozo Speaks
Martin is a Bush appointed Republican stooge whose only interest is helping those who already control the airwaves and has no interest in promoting new technology like satellite that might hurt established business interests, like traditional radio, and promote free speech. He has made it clear time and time again that he works for the money, not for the people, which is suppose to be his job. HIs attack dismissing in advance any proposed merger should be enough to disqualify him from being able to rule on it, but I'm sure he isn't really concerned with legal ethics.
Just so there is no confusion, Republican Robert M. McDowell, a true hero on the FCC, refused under huge pressure to rule on the merger of ATT and Bell South because of a prior conflict of interest. Just because you're a Republican doesn't mean your a jerk. But Martin is a jerk.
And he's an idiot. First of, there aren't any real legal grounds to prevent a merger, and I'm sure XM and Sirius could fight the FCC in court.
Second, there isn't any reason they would have to.
Howard, it should be noted, didn't seem too upset about the announcement. Almost as if he already knew about it and knew what the answer was. And he talked about it on air. If the FCC wants to play hard ball, XM and Sirius don't have to merge their hardware.
They could simply merge their programming.
And what programming would that be? The only programming that really seems to move customers. Howard fucking Stern. Oh, and maybe sports. But the rest really doesn't matter. The music channels are already almost exactly the same. Even if the FCC wants to stop an official merger of XM and Sirius, there is absolutely nothing illegal (or requiring a hint of FCC approval) for XM to lincense the rights to broadcast Howard on XM along with his Sirius broadcast.
And why would XM do that? Because they have to. Their ship is slowly sinking. To keep their business alive, they need the life line Howard could throw them. What's in it for Sirius? Money, yes, but also access to XM sports.
So once again, Howard has outfoxed the FCC. This latest advance attack didn't even get more than a brief mention on his show because he's already way ahead of them.
A merger by just another name…
As I've said, hold on to your Sirius stock. More news is coming soon.
Mary DeSade
Friday, January 19, 2007
Sunday, January 14, 2007
iPhone - The Howard Stern Show Delivery Device
Yep, you read the title. I want to be the first person to announce: THE IPHONE WILL CARRY SIRIUS AND, MORE IMPORTANTLY, HOWARD STERN.
As I mentioned in my previous post, Howard, Mel (and Super Agent Don) have been well aware of the potential and future of podcasting and the iPod. And they've also known from the start that it is not a competitor to satelite radio. Moreover, they know all about the iPhone and have for at least a year.
Howard's "geeze, Mr. Wizard, I might be dumb, but I don't get the iPhone" riff on his show after Apple's announcement, didn't fool me for one second.
Because the iPhone will carry Sirius.
Why didn't Howard announce that rather than play dumb? In part, because he doesn't want to hurt current sales of Sirius hardware once people find out the Holy Grail of a Sirius enabled iPod is finally coming.
Why bother to buy a clunky Stilleto now when you know your sleek new iPhone will do the same job if you just hold out a few months until it is released? (Supposedly in June, but I suspect Apple will get them out there sooner.)
Now before Taylor, my good friend at TSS Radio, panics and says "Mary! Again with the bitching about the Stilleto! It's one of my best sellers! What are you trying to do to me?" Let me say that because the iPhone will be Sirius compatable does not mean that you should stop buying Sirius hardware and wait for the iPhone. Because, if you read my last post, we will find that once again, we are talking about Apples and Oranges. In fact, once I realized that the iPhone will have Howard availible, I've fallen in love with my Stilleto because is is simply brilliant what Sirius (and Howard) were up to with it.
As I mentioned in my Dec. 10, 2006 post "A Disappointing Christmas," I was hugely disappointed with the Stilleto given all the build up for it. In particular, the headphones were a disaster (though you can easily replace them with any you want) and the idea that you can receive Sirius while running or walking (outside of your car) is far from perfectly realized.
Where the Stilleto, like all Sirius hardware, shines is in the car. I already have an S50 in my Infinity and so I got a car mount for my girlfriends truck and she's thrilled with the Stilleto over her old Starmate.
Why pay the extra bucks for a Stilleto just to put it in a car mount? Because you can pop it out of the car mount and use it for other things. You can buy a home listening unit (which I haven't because I still use my S50) but more importantly… you can use it to listen to Howard live on the internet.
Let me repeat this. The Stilleto allows you to listen to Howard live on the internet, off your home connection, with any headphones you like. And it does this beautifully.
What does this have to do with the iPhone? Everything.
Because one of the key features of the iPhone, one that Howard glossed over when he talked about the iPhone at length, was that the iPhone has full, complete, total access to the internet.
So how do I know the iPhone will have Sirius? Because Sirius is already availible on the internet. And the iPhone has internet access. So guess what? Sirius will be availble for the iPhone.
Now here's another clue. On www.howardstern.com there is an ad for a new Howard Stern Media Player. Cool. But guess what, it isn't Mac compatible. To quote the question and answer:
"Can I use the player with my Mac?
At the current time the new Howard Stern Media Player does not support the Mac OS. However, we are working diligently to complete a Mac version."
Why not have a Mac version availible now? Well, obviously there are more Windows users, so it would make sense to focus on serving them first. So maybe that's it. But it could also be that they know what is coming with the iPhone, which also contains a full Mac OS, and they want to make sure it works with both Apple computers and their new phone.
My guess, is that Howard and Mel and Sirius are working very closely with Apple on all of this. When Howard was negociating with Apple about adding Sirius to the iPod they told him about the iPhone and advised he wait for it. Howard rewarded them with nice mentions of how great Apple products were for listening and viewing porn and a strong bond was formed.
Which gets back to the Stilleto. The Stilleto sucks at being a portable device to listen to Sirius live outdoors. It thrives at listening to Sirius over the internet. Hmm…
My guess is that the Stilleto was an expensive beta test for the new iPhone. And it got it right. All the iPhone now needs to listen to Sirius live over the internet, as seemlessly and neatly as the Stilleto is a simple piece of software. It might be built into the iPhone, or offered as a small downloadable software internet widget (which is a key feature the iPhone and Mac OS). Sirius has all the technology and streaming equipment in place. The little software widget to access it is something a smart high schooler could program.
So why didn't Apple announce that the new iPhone would carry Howard? For the same reason they don't adverstise the fact that iPods are great for porn. Better to let Howard do that on his own. (Or quietly for them.)
Okay, so the iPhone will carry Sirius off the internet. Why bother to buy a Stiletto now, given the fact that us Howard fans have been used as beta testers and shelled out a lot of money for the honor?
Well, because currently you can get a Stiletto for $299.99 (less at TSS Radio) and listen to Howard off the internet via your home connection. The new iPhone is going to cost $499. Either way you're going to need a subscription, but I'm willing to guess, that your $12.99 subscription for your Stiletto will also allow you to listen to Howard on the iPhone on the internet for free.
Once you leave your home, you will be charged by Cingular for every minute you listen to Howard on you iPhone off of their cell phone lines. If you plug your Stilleto into your car, you listen to Howard for free (if you have a subscription).
I suspect, at least at first, the widget in the iPhone will not allow you to download or timeshift, like you can with your Stiletto. (Of course, by then I hope you will be able to download a podcast of the Reilly Martin show off iTunes.)
So let's imagine a normal day for a Howard Stern fan. You've got your Stiletto plugged into your home unit, and it's recording shows for you over night. As you wake up, you plug in your iPhone and listen to Howard live as you make breakfast over your home internet connection. You unplug your Stiletto, pop your iPhone into your pocket and plug the Stilleto into your car mount. You drive to the gym. Now you could use the iPhone to listen to Howard live, but there aren't any car mounts to do that yet, and you'd have to pay Cingular by the minute for the service. $12.99 a month for Sirius and the Stiletto is a lot cheaper especially since the subscription also your cool new iPhone. When you drive into the large parking lot structure, you lose your Sirius signal. No, problem, hit a button and you can listen to Howard pre-recorded from your home unit on yor Stiletto.
Once you're in the gym, you pop in your headphones, take out your iPhone and listen to Howard over the internet. Now, you could use the Stilleto to do that, but the iPhone is lighter and easier and also has phone features in case you get a call. But your Stiletto works so much better in your car. So for a few hundred bucks you have a great car and home radio. For 500 bucks you have a great internet cell phone. And for $12.99 a month you have a subscription for Howard to both. For half that, you're girlfriend gets one too.
Welcome to the future.
Mary DeSade
As I mentioned in my previous post, Howard, Mel (and Super Agent Don) have been well aware of the potential and future of podcasting and the iPod. And they've also known from the start that it is not a competitor to satelite radio. Moreover, they know all about the iPhone and have for at least a year.
Howard's "geeze, Mr. Wizard, I might be dumb, but I don't get the iPhone" riff on his show after Apple's announcement, didn't fool me for one second.
Because the iPhone will carry Sirius.
Why didn't Howard announce that rather than play dumb? In part, because he doesn't want to hurt current sales of Sirius hardware once people find out the Holy Grail of a Sirius enabled iPod is finally coming.
Why bother to buy a clunky Stilleto now when you know your sleek new iPhone will do the same job if you just hold out a few months until it is released? (Supposedly in June, but I suspect Apple will get them out there sooner.)
Now before Taylor, my good friend at TSS Radio, panics and says "Mary! Again with the bitching about the Stilleto! It's one of my best sellers! What are you trying to do to me?" Let me say that because the iPhone will be Sirius compatable does not mean that you should stop buying Sirius hardware and wait for the iPhone. Because, if you read my last post, we will find that once again, we are talking about Apples and Oranges. In fact, once I realized that the iPhone will have Howard availible, I've fallen in love with my Stilleto because is is simply brilliant what Sirius (and Howard) were up to with it.
As I mentioned in my Dec. 10, 2006 post "A Disappointing Christmas," I was hugely disappointed with the Stilleto given all the build up for it. In particular, the headphones were a disaster (though you can easily replace them with any you want) and the idea that you can receive Sirius while running or walking (outside of your car) is far from perfectly realized.
Where the Stilleto, like all Sirius hardware, shines is in the car. I already have an S50 in my Infinity and so I got a car mount for my girlfriends truck and she's thrilled with the Stilleto over her old Starmate.
Why pay the extra bucks for a Stilleto just to put it in a car mount? Because you can pop it out of the car mount and use it for other things. You can buy a home listening unit (which I haven't because I still use my S50) but more importantly… you can use it to listen to Howard live on the internet.
Let me repeat this. The Stilleto allows you to listen to Howard live on the internet, off your home connection, with any headphones you like. And it does this beautifully.
What does this have to do with the iPhone? Everything.
Because one of the key features of the iPhone, one that Howard glossed over when he talked about the iPhone at length, was that the iPhone has full, complete, total access to the internet.
So how do I know the iPhone will have Sirius? Because Sirius is already availible on the internet. And the iPhone has internet access. So guess what? Sirius will be availble for the iPhone.
Now here's another clue. On www.howardstern.com there is an ad for a new Howard Stern Media Player. Cool. But guess what, it isn't Mac compatible. To quote the question and answer:
"Can I use the player with my Mac?
At the current time the new Howard Stern Media Player does not support the Mac OS. However, we are working diligently to complete a Mac version."
Why not have a Mac version availible now? Well, obviously there are more Windows users, so it would make sense to focus on serving them first. So maybe that's it. But it could also be that they know what is coming with the iPhone, which also contains a full Mac OS, and they want to make sure it works with both Apple computers and their new phone.
My guess, is that Howard and Mel and Sirius are working very closely with Apple on all of this. When Howard was negociating with Apple about adding Sirius to the iPod they told him about the iPhone and advised he wait for it. Howard rewarded them with nice mentions of how great Apple products were for listening and viewing porn and a strong bond was formed.
Which gets back to the Stilleto. The Stilleto sucks at being a portable device to listen to Sirius live outdoors. It thrives at listening to Sirius over the internet. Hmm…
My guess is that the Stilleto was an expensive beta test for the new iPhone. And it got it right. All the iPhone now needs to listen to Sirius live over the internet, as seemlessly and neatly as the Stilleto is a simple piece of software. It might be built into the iPhone, or offered as a small downloadable software internet widget (which is a key feature the iPhone and Mac OS). Sirius has all the technology and streaming equipment in place. The little software widget to access it is something a smart high schooler could program.
So why didn't Apple announce that the new iPhone would carry Howard? For the same reason they don't adverstise the fact that iPods are great for porn. Better to let Howard do that on his own. (Or quietly for them.)
Okay, so the iPhone will carry Sirius off the internet. Why bother to buy a Stiletto now, given the fact that us Howard fans have been used as beta testers and shelled out a lot of money for the honor?
Well, because currently you can get a Stiletto for $299.99 (less at TSS Radio) and listen to Howard off the internet via your home connection. The new iPhone is going to cost $499. Either way you're going to need a subscription, but I'm willing to guess, that your $12.99 subscription for your Stiletto will also allow you to listen to Howard on the iPhone on the internet for free.
Once you leave your home, you will be charged by Cingular for every minute you listen to Howard on you iPhone off of their cell phone lines. If you plug your Stilleto into your car, you listen to Howard for free (if you have a subscription).
I suspect, at least at first, the widget in the iPhone will not allow you to download or timeshift, like you can with your Stiletto. (Of course, by then I hope you will be able to download a podcast of the Reilly Martin show off iTunes.)
So let's imagine a normal day for a Howard Stern fan. You've got your Stiletto plugged into your home unit, and it's recording shows for you over night. As you wake up, you plug in your iPhone and listen to Howard live as you make breakfast over your home internet connection. You unplug your Stiletto, pop your iPhone into your pocket and plug the Stilleto into your car mount. You drive to the gym. Now you could use the iPhone to listen to Howard live, but there aren't any car mounts to do that yet, and you'd have to pay Cingular by the minute for the service. $12.99 a month for Sirius and the Stiletto is a lot cheaper especially since the subscription also your cool new iPhone. When you drive into the large parking lot structure, you lose your Sirius signal. No, problem, hit a button and you can listen to Howard pre-recorded from your home unit on yor Stiletto.
Once you're in the gym, you pop in your headphones, take out your iPhone and listen to Howard over the internet. Now, you could use the Stilleto to do that, but the iPhone is lighter and easier and also has phone features in case you get a call. But your Stiletto works so much better in your car. So for a few hundred bucks you have a great car and home radio. For 500 bucks you have a great internet cell phone. And for $12.99 a month you have a subscription for Howard to both. For half that, you're girlfriend gets one too.
Welcome to the future.
Mary DeSade
To Podcast or Not to Podcast: Part 2
Tons of Howard news to catch up on, so pardon me if it takes me a little time to catch up. In particular, in the middle of my pod-casting posts, the new Apple Inc. has announced at last that they are moving into the cell phone business with the iPhone. This is an announcement of huge importance to us Howard fans, but I'll have to save it for my next piece. Because for you to fully understand what an amazing development the iPhone is, it's all the more important that you understand what has been going on behind the scenes with Howard and the pod-casting phenomena.
Howard isn't already pod-casting, even though I'm sure he knows he should be. It is a market he can't afford to ignore given its future growth. Especially now with the iPhone, which Apple conservatively estimates will put another 10 million devices capable of pod-casting into the marketplace.
So why hasn't Howard started pod-casting yet? Well, his first job, after leaving traditional radio, the one that he got paid 500 million for, was to save Sirius from bankruptcy. If he had been available on iTunes when he first launched, there is a good chance many of his listeners would have avoided the trouble of rigging up their cars with new radios and simply got him for their iPods. Ultimately, I still think serious Howard fans would have gotten Sirius too, but they might not have rushed over, like they did by the millions.
But Howard has already done job 1. He brought Sirius over 5 millions fans in a single year and the company is finally posting profits. But sales growth is slowing. Sirius will continue to grow, because it's good broadcasting technology, but the hard core Howard fans who would make the switch simply because of Howard, have probably all switched. More casual Howard fans will choose Sirius when they get a new car or someone gives it as a present. As non-Howard fans learn how great this technology is, and decide to go out and try it, the fact that Sirius has Howard and they've heard he's funny will also help. Beyond Howard's radio fans, there were a lot of people that never got a chance to hear him because he wasn't broadcast in their city to begin with. Some of those people will get a new Sirius system for their car, and discover him. So Howard's audience will continue to grow.
However, because Howard is only on Sirius, he has lost some of his reach and potential to win over new fans quickly. It's not an easy thing to just check him out to see what the buzz is about. (Like it was when he was on free radio.) Sure, Howard can go on David Letterman and make a splash and get people curious. But someone curious won't necessarily pay to buy the hardware and a subscription and the all the extra work that involves.
Which is where pod-casting comes in. Someone who sees Howard on Letterman, or reads about him, might be willing to pay 99 cents to hear him off their iTunes store. They might buy his show a few times and then realize it would be simply cheaper to get Sirius. Or that they want both the convenience of Howard's pay for pod-cast, and a Sirius subscription so they have full immediate access in their car, so Howard gets paid twice for the same content (or three times if you include Howard TV).
So that's Mary's opinion, who cares? What's the chance of this really happening? It isn't going to happen unless Howard makes it happen, and what are the chances of that?
I think they are actually be pretty good. Because I have secret inside sources? No, because I listen to Howard. And he can't fool me.
When Apple made the announcement of the iPhone, Howard went out of his way to talk about it on the show. He carefully read the description of it. Now Howard certainly didn't endorse it, he said he was happy with his own phone. And he said he didn't "get it" but perhaps he could be wrong. Now contrary to what people think, Howard doesn't just babble on the air for four hours saying anything that comes into his head. He makes it appear that is what he is doing, but EVERYTHING he says he says for a reason. The guy is a genius and everything he says or does has a lot of thought behind it. Most often, he says what he says because he knows it is entertaining. But also much of what he says has to do with furthering his own business agenda and some times political agenda. Whether it's talking about how great Howard TV is, or why you should buy Sirius as a gift, or why the FCC has no legal right to regulate satellite or why he doesn't care about the fact that traditional radio ratings are falling. (Yeah, you don't care Howard. You aren't laughing with inner delight ever time you hear about it. You have no interest in seeing your enemies defeated, their fields salted, and their women sobbing. Right. You can't bullshit me, you want to skull fuck their their dead fathers! You're the most competitive person on the planet! You say you don't care, to rub it in.)
The discussion of the iPhone wasn't particularly entertaining. Sure, it was a topic of the daily news, but Howard didn't need to spend as much time as he did on it. Moreover, Howard could have used it as a opportunity to slam iPods or pod-casting as being inferior to Sirius broadcasting. But he didn't. Even though he didn't rave about the iPhone, he certainly gave it some very good promotion, and anyone coming out of the conversation was likely to at least be curious about it. Howard didn't endorse it, but he certainly didn't dismiss it. (For example, at first they said it didn't have a camera, and then they talked about the fact that it did, and that it was a very good 2 mega pixel one.) Howard's dopey, "I don't get it" act didn't fool me. This guy is a genius about technology and media and has tons of inside contacts. He completely gets it.
Since I wanted to know more about what Howard might be up to in regard to pod-casting, I did some research on on Marks Frigging (marksfrigging.com) which is the best research aid for us serious professional Howard analysts. (I must admit that I don't listen to every minute of every show). Interestingly, I only found two mentions of the word "pod-casting" over the years.
The only time Howard talked about it on the air was to say that he listened to Adam Curries pod-casting show. Which is also carried on Sirius. (Certainly it doesn't seem to hurt Sirius that Adam Curries show is also available on iTunes, but then he's no Howard.)
The other mention wasn't even from Howard's show. It was, every interestingly, from a report on May 2, 2005 that Mel Karmazin announced with some fan fair that Sirius was jumping onto the pod-casting bandwagon.
http://www.forbes.com/technology/personaltech/2005/05/02/0502autofacescan06.html?partner=rss
So Howard's boss also knew this was interesting technology and promoted it himself. But despite the announcement, Sirius has done little pod-casting so far, other than Curries show and a couple test promos for Howard before he started broadcasting on Sirius. Since then, almost nothing. Why the change of heart? My guess is that at the time, Mel was keeping his options open in case the Sirius launch failed. If people didn't buy up the radios to get to Howard, he could have shifted gears and tried to make some money (and paid for Howard's salary) with a iTunes pod-cast that was a sure thing as a last resort. But because Howard was so successful in moving people over to Sirius, he decided to put the pod-cast plans on the back burner. At least until now.
Now if you change the search from "pod-casting" to "iPod" you get 52 results. Going through them, you'll find that over the years Howard has had a lot of nice things to say about iPods, loading his up with Heidi Cortez audio porn, and also giving them away on his show as a promotion. Some of this was before the move to Sirius, but even after the move, Howard and his crew generally only has nice things to say about iPods, including Richard using them to watch porn on a plane. Now, obviously Apple can't promote its products as useful porn delivery devices. But that is exactly what they are, in addition to be good at other thing. Yet Howard can talk about it. And Apple certainly benefits enormously from those backhanded porn advertisements. So Apple certainly owes Howard for some favors.
The only negative things Howard has said about the iPod is a couple half hearted mentions by him and his crew about how the Stiletto is a better gift, because it comes with content included. This is true, but a little bit of a misrepresentation. There is plenty of free content for an iPod on the internet. But that was about the best argument one can muster in a Stiletto vs. iPod debate. The Stiletto is bigger, has less battery life, etc., etc. It certainly doesn't compare favorably to an iPod, any iPod.
But that is because it shouldn't be compared. They are two completely different devices and mediums. You don't compare a car to a motorcycle. The Stiletto is bigger because it does something an iPod doesn't do. It receives broadcasting anywhere in the United States. The iPod has to be connected to a computer to get content. With a Stiletto you can channel surf, with an iPod you have to choose what you want in advance. The Stiletto is great if you don't know what you want to listen to, the iPod is great at time shifting. Apples and oranges.
Yet, there is no denying that some people do get confused about the fact that these are different devices that do different things, both of which are useful and complement each other. So why shouldn't Howard go ahead and slam the iPod or at least avoid promoting it. He mentioned that there were talks with Apple about integrating it into the iPod but they decided not to do it. So why keep giving Apple free airtime?
Generally, Howard isn't easy on his enemy's or any potential threats to his business. He fights back aggressively. (There are 80 results for a search of XM on Marks Frigging and you can be damn straight they all blast it.) It's certainly not like Howard to be easy on even a potential opponent. So why is he soft to the point of supporting Apple?
Because, Howard knows that one day, he will be working with Apple, and wants to keep the door open.
Now that Sirius is saved from bankruptcy, and they have a profitable subscriber base, it's time for Howard to start testing out some pod-casting. He's got nothing to lose, and quite a bit to gain. He can take advantage of the strengths of satellite radio technology to shore up it's weaknesses.
Let's start with a no brainer. One of the great things about satellite radio technology is that Sirius knows exactly what the ratings are for all of it's programing. Down to the listener down to the song, down to the second. Naturally, they don't want to publicize this so much (we know exactly what you are listening to) but this technology was necessary so they could keep track of music payments for songs downloaded as opposed to listened to during a broadcast. (The corrupt record companies forced them to do that, but that's the subject for another post.) So they have true ratings, as opposed to terrestrial radios guesses. (Which of course, Howard always bitched about.)
So what are these ratings saying? People are listening to Howard. They listen to him a lot. And not that much more. His ratings are higher than ANYTHING else on Sirius by a huge margin. Including…
Howard's own programming. Ferrall, Bubba the Love Sponge, Red Peters and other non-Howard programming get a tiny fraction of "The Howard Stern Shows" audience. Doing better are the "Wrap Up Show," Howard 100 news and some of the other programming that is at least about Howard, like the Super-fan Round Table and the Intern show, etc.
How do I know this? Because of what is being aired. Howard's show is being repeated like crazy, including old broadcasts from years ago, and broadcasts from just a few weeks prior. If Bubba or Ferrall or whatever was getting those kinds of ratings, they would be repeated more often. Right now, Howard 101 is kind of a graveyard because everyone is listening to Howard 100. And Howard 100 just airs stuff about Howard. Which is, frankly what it should be.
Because in a broadcast medium, like satellite, having a channel that just airs Howard, is like having a channel that just airs oldies. One of the advantages of Sirius, is that you can have channels that air 70's, 60's and 50's. If you like that kind of music, you'll be happy. If you like Howard, you'll be happy tuning into the Howard channel even if it's a repeat.
On the other hand, Sirius has some other great programming, and if you're willing to take the time to explore, you'll find some amazing content. It's just that most people, when they're driving (and that's still when most people listen) don't want to explore. They want to be entertained without thinking. And Howard knows how to do that.
Bubba is a bit of an acquired taste, and so is Ferrall. Both have their fans, but they aren't necessary Howard fans. Just because you like Howard, doesn't mean you'll like Bubba or Ferrall. Likewise, it's possible that there are people who might like them, who aren't Howard fans. (Well, not likely, everyone loves Howard if they bother to listen.)
So what to do? Why not put their shows up for pod-casting? In fact, why not put them up for free pod-casting? Why not let them try to create a fan base on the internet. Right now, no one is buying a Sirius player to listen to Bubba or Ferrall. But what if someone starts catching their shows on iTunes, and gets hooked.
But if some new hard core Bubba fan can get if for free on iTunes, why would they then subscribe to Sirius? Well, once again, we're talking Apples and Oranges. You become a big fan of Bubba or Ferrall, because it's free. But to listen, you have to go to your computer, plug in your iPod, and download it. Not a huge pain in the ass, but it takes a little work.
So when you're buying a new car, you are offered a few choices. No satellite, XM or Sirius? Well, everyone knows commercial free music from satellite is great and well worth it so you might as well get it since it's only $12.95 a month or even less. (First three months free, etc.) XM or Sirius? Well, Sirius has Bubba. Sirius has Ferrall. And you're already a fan. Plus, they have this guy named Howard Stern, who doesn't give a free pod-cast, but might be interesting.
Now I'm not saying that this would result in anything like the 5 million subscribers Howard brought over to Sirius. But I do think it's possible it could add hundreds or maybe thousands of new subscribers and who knows, maybe a lot more.
How on Earth could Sirius lose anything by trying this?
Speaking of Earth, what about Spaceman Reilly Martin? If there is one breakout non-Howard show, I would be willing to beat that show is it. I suspect it's ratings aren't amazing, but Howard talks about the huge numbers of calls it gets, which means it has a great hard core fan base.
But I suspect it could be doing even better. I desperately want to listen to it, but I simply don't have the time to schedule my life around it's occasional broadcast. (Or figure out how to program my Stiletto and S50 to capture it.) But I sure as hell would pay 99 cents for it. In a heartbeat. And I'm sure there are a lot of other Howard fans that would do the same to be able to play it on their iPods.
Once again, Sirius has absolutely nothing to lose by trying to test this out. No one is subscribing to Sirius to get the Reilly Martin show. At least now. If it was available as a paid pod-cast, and got popular, who knows?
Also, there are fans of Howard's old radio broadcast that simply were too cheap to pay for Sirius, or got angry because they had to. So why not toss those cheap bastards a bone. Make the Super Fan Roundtable free as a pod-cast on iTunes. Make the Intern Show free. Have a free daily Howard 100 new-cast.
Why? Why reward those Howard fans too fucking cheap to pay $12.95 a month for him? Well, if you're a drug dealer, why not give Artie some free snorts of heroin since he decided to give it up? Trust me, if you start putting Howard 100 news, and the Intern Show out there for free, you will do two things. You will make us Sirius subscribers very happy, since we can put it on our iPods, and you will make other old fans who aren't subscribing hungry for more. And when the walk in to buy a new car, they'll subscribe.
Finally, why not sell a weekly "Howard Stern Show Listener" pod-cast? Charge 99 cents for an hour highlights reel? Again, this is something that hard core fans would pay for in addition to subscribing, and could encourage other people to subscribe to Sirius to get the full real thing.
Okay, so I'm smart, but Howard is smarter. Why hasn't he and Mel already thought about all this? Why aren't they already doing it? It just makes too much sense to at least pod-cast some promos (like they did before the Sirius launch) for Howard and Mel to be ignoring the potential pod-casting to help Sirius sales. So what's going on?
I'll tell you. Howard did such a good job in moving subscribers to Sirius they didn't need to rush. And they had inside information about the "Next Big Thing."
Take a look at my next blog for a big announcement.
Howard isn't already pod-casting, even though I'm sure he knows he should be. It is a market he can't afford to ignore given its future growth. Especially now with the iPhone, which Apple conservatively estimates will put another 10 million devices capable of pod-casting into the marketplace.
So why hasn't Howard started pod-casting yet? Well, his first job, after leaving traditional radio, the one that he got paid 500 million for, was to save Sirius from bankruptcy. If he had been available on iTunes when he first launched, there is a good chance many of his listeners would have avoided the trouble of rigging up their cars with new radios and simply got him for their iPods. Ultimately, I still think serious Howard fans would have gotten Sirius too, but they might not have rushed over, like they did by the millions.
But Howard has already done job 1. He brought Sirius over 5 millions fans in a single year and the company is finally posting profits. But sales growth is slowing. Sirius will continue to grow, because it's good broadcasting technology, but the hard core Howard fans who would make the switch simply because of Howard, have probably all switched. More casual Howard fans will choose Sirius when they get a new car or someone gives it as a present. As non-Howard fans learn how great this technology is, and decide to go out and try it, the fact that Sirius has Howard and they've heard he's funny will also help. Beyond Howard's radio fans, there were a lot of people that never got a chance to hear him because he wasn't broadcast in their city to begin with. Some of those people will get a new Sirius system for their car, and discover him. So Howard's audience will continue to grow.
However, because Howard is only on Sirius, he has lost some of his reach and potential to win over new fans quickly. It's not an easy thing to just check him out to see what the buzz is about. (Like it was when he was on free radio.) Sure, Howard can go on David Letterman and make a splash and get people curious. But someone curious won't necessarily pay to buy the hardware and a subscription and the all the extra work that involves.
Which is where pod-casting comes in. Someone who sees Howard on Letterman, or reads about him, might be willing to pay 99 cents to hear him off their iTunes store. They might buy his show a few times and then realize it would be simply cheaper to get Sirius. Or that they want both the convenience of Howard's pay for pod-cast, and a Sirius subscription so they have full immediate access in their car, so Howard gets paid twice for the same content (or three times if you include Howard TV).
So that's Mary's opinion, who cares? What's the chance of this really happening? It isn't going to happen unless Howard makes it happen, and what are the chances of that?
I think they are actually be pretty good. Because I have secret inside sources? No, because I listen to Howard. And he can't fool me.
When Apple made the announcement of the iPhone, Howard went out of his way to talk about it on the show. He carefully read the description of it. Now Howard certainly didn't endorse it, he said he was happy with his own phone. And he said he didn't "get it" but perhaps he could be wrong. Now contrary to what people think, Howard doesn't just babble on the air for four hours saying anything that comes into his head. He makes it appear that is what he is doing, but EVERYTHING he says he says for a reason. The guy is a genius and everything he says or does has a lot of thought behind it. Most often, he says what he says because he knows it is entertaining. But also much of what he says has to do with furthering his own business agenda and some times political agenda. Whether it's talking about how great Howard TV is, or why you should buy Sirius as a gift, or why the FCC has no legal right to regulate satellite or why he doesn't care about the fact that traditional radio ratings are falling. (Yeah, you don't care Howard. You aren't laughing with inner delight ever time you hear about it. You have no interest in seeing your enemies defeated, their fields salted, and their women sobbing. Right. You can't bullshit me, you want to skull fuck their their dead fathers! You're the most competitive person on the planet! You say you don't care, to rub it in.)
The discussion of the iPhone wasn't particularly entertaining. Sure, it was a topic of the daily news, but Howard didn't need to spend as much time as he did on it. Moreover, Howard could have used it as a opportunity to slam iPods or pod-casting as being inferior to Sirius broadcasting. But he didn't. Even though he didn't rave about the iPhone, he certainly gave it some very good promotion, and anyone coming out of the conversation was likely to at least be curious about it. Howard didn't endorse it, but he certainly didn't dismiss it. (For example, at first they said it didn't have a camera, and then they talked about the fact that it did, and that it was a very good 2 mega pixel one.) Howard's dopey, "I don't get it" act didn't fool me. This guy is a genius about technology and media and has tons of inside contacts. He completely gets it.
Since I wanted to know more about what Howard might be up to in regard to pod-casting, I did some research on on Marks Frigging (marksfrigging.com) which is the best research aid for us serious professional Howard analysts. (I must admit that I don't listen to every minute of every show). Interestingly, I only found two mentions of the word "pod-casting" over the years.
The only time Howard talked about it on the air was to say that he listened to Adam Curries pod-casting show. Which is also carried on Sirius. (Certainly it doesn't seem to hurt Sirius that Adam Curries show is also available on iTunes, but then he's no Howard.)
The other mention wasn't even from Howard's show. It was, every interestingly, from a report on May 2, 2005 that Mel Karmazin announced with some fan fair that Sirius was jumping onto the pod-casting bandwagon.
http://www.forbes.com/technology/personaltech/2005/05/02/0502autofacescan06.html?partner=rss
So Howard's boss also knew this was interesting technology and promoted it himself. But despite the announcement, Sirius has done little pod-casting so far, other than Curries show and a couple test promos for Howard before he started broadcasting on Sirius. Since then, almost nothing. Why the change of heart? My guess is that at the time, Mel was keeping his options open in case the Sirius launch failed. If people didn't buy up the radios to get to Howard, he could have shifted gears and tried to make some money (and paid for Howard's salary) with a iTunes pod-cast that was a sure thing as a last resort. But because Howard was so successful in moving people over to Sirius, he decided to put the pod-cast plans on the back burner. At least until now.
Now if you change the search from "pod-casting" to "iPod" you get 52 results. Going through them, you'll find that over the years Howard has had a lot of nice things to say about iPods, loading his up with Heidi Cortez audio porn, and also giving them away on his show as a promotion. Some of this was before the move to Sirius, but even after the move, Howard and his crew generally only has nice things to say about iPods, including Richard using them to watch porn on a plane. Now, obviously Apple can't promote its products as useful porn delivery devices. But that is exactly what they are, in addition to be good at other thing. Yet Howard can talk about it. And Apple certainly benefits enormously from those backhanded porn advertisements. So Apple certainly owes Howard for some favors.
The only negative things Howard has said about the iPod is a couple half hearted mentions by him and his crew about how the Stiletto is a better gift, because it comes with content included. This is true, but a little bit of a misrepresentation. There is plenty of free content for an iPod on the internet. But that was about the best argument one can muster in a Stiletto vs. iPod debate. The Stiletto is bigger, has less battery life, etc., etc. It certainly doesn't compare favorably to an iPod, any iPod.
But that is because it shouldn't be compared. They are two completely different devices and mediums. You don't compare a car to a motorcycle. The Stiletto is bigger because it does something an iPod doesn't do. It receives broadcasting anywhere in the United States. The iPod has to be connected to a computer to get content. With a Stiletto you can channel surf, with an iPod you have to choose what you want in advance. The Stiletto is great if you don't know what you want to listen to, the iPod is great at time shifting. Apples and oranges.
Yet, there is no denying that some people do get confused about the fact that these are different devices that do different things, both of which are useful and complement each other. So why shouldn't Howard go ahead and slam the iPod or at least avoid promoting it. He mentioned that there were talks with Apple about integrating it into the iPod but they decided not to do it. So why keep giving Apple free airtime?
Generally, Howard isn't easy on his enemy's or any potential threats to his business. He fights back aggressively. (There are 80 results for a search of XM on Marks Frigging and you can be damn straight they all blast it.) It's certainly not like Howard to be easy on even a potential opponent. So why is he soft to the point of supporting Apple?
Because, Howard knows that one day, he will be working with Apple, and wants to keep the door open.
Now that Sirius is saved from bankruptcy, and they have a profitable subscriber base, it's time for Howard to start testing out some pod-casting. He's got nothing to lose, and quite a bit to gain. He can take advantage of the strengths of satellite radio technology to shore up it's weaknesses.
Let's start with a no brainer. One of the great things about satellite radio technology is that Sirius knows exactly what the ratings are for all of it's programing. Down to the listener down to the song, down to the second. Naturally, they don't want to publicize this so much (we know exactly what you are listening to) but this technology was necessary so they could keep track of music payments for songs downloaded as opposed to listened to during a broadcast. (The corrupt record companies forced them to do that, but that's the subject for another post.) So they have true ratings, as opposed to terrestrial radios guesses. (Which of course, Howard always bitched about.)
So what are these ratings saying? People are listening to Howard. They listen to him a lot. And not that much more. His ratings are higher than ANYTHING else on Sirius by a huge margin. Including…
Howard's own programming. Ferrall, Bubba the Love Sponge, Red Peters and other non-Howard programming get a tiny fraction of "The Howard Stern Shows" audience. Doing better are the "Wrap Up Show," Howard 100 news and some of the other programming that is at least about Howard, like the Super-fan Round Table and the Intern show, etc.
How do I know this? Because of what is being aired. Howard's show is being repeated like crazy, including old broadcasts from years ago, and broadcasts from just a few weeks prior. If Bubba or Ferrall or whatever was getting those kinds of ratings, they would be repeated more often. Right now, Howard 101 is kind of a graveyard because everyone is listening to Howard 100. And Howard 100 just airs stuff about Howard. Which is, frankly what it should be.
Because in a broadcast medium, like satellite, having a channel that just airs Howard, is like having a channel that just airs oldies. One of the advantages of Sirius, is that you can have channels that air 70's, 60's and 50's. If you like that kind of music, you'll be happy. If you like Howard, you'll be happy tuning into the Howard channel even if it's a repeat.
On the other hand, Sirius has some other great programming, and if you're willing to take the time to explore, you'll find some amazing content. It's just that most people, when they're driving (and that's still when most people listen) don't want to explore. They want to be entertained without thinking. And Howard knows how to do that.
Bubba is a bit of an acquired taste, and so is Ferrall. Both have their fans, but they aren't necessary Howard fans. Just because you like Howard, doesn't mean you'll like Bubba or Ferrall. Likewise, it's possible that there are people who might like them, who aren't Howard fans. (Well, not likely, everyone loves Howard if they bother to listen.)
So what to do? Why not put their shows up for pod-casting? In fact, why not put them up for free pod-casting? Why not let them try to create a fan base on the internet. Right now, no one is buying a Sirius player to listen to Bubba or Ferrall. But what if someone starts catching their shows on iTunes, and gets hooked.
But if some new hard core Bubba fan can get if for free on iTunes, why would they then subscribe to Sirius? Well, once again, we're talking Apples and Oranges. You become a big fan of Bubba or Ferrall, because it's free. But to listen, you have to go to your computer, plug in your iPod, and download it. Not a huge pain in the ass, but it takes a little work.
So when you're buying a new car, you are offered a few choices. No satellite, XM or Sirius? Well, everyone knows commercial free music from satellite is great and well worth it so you might as well get it since it's only $12.95 a month or even less. (First three months free, etc.) XM or Sirius? Well, Sirius has Bubba. Sirius has Ferrall. And you're already a fan. Plus, they have this guy named Howard Stern, who doesn't give a free pod-cast, but might be interesting.
Now I'm not saying that this would result in anything like the 5 million subscribers Howard brought over to Sirius. But I do think it's possible it could add hundreds or maybe thousands of new subscribers and who knows, maybe a lot more.
How on Earth could Sirius lose anything by trying this?
Speaking of Earth, what about Spaceman Reilly Martin? If there is one breakout non-Howard show, I would be willing to beat that show is it. I suspect it's ratings aren't amazing, but Howard talks about the huge numbers of calls it gets, which means it has a great hard core fan base.
But I suspect it could be doing even better. I desperately want to listen to it, but I simply don't have the time to schedule my life around it's occasional broadcast. (Or figure out how to program my Stiletto and S50 to capture it.) But I sure as hell would pay 99 cents for it. In a heartbeat. And I'm sure there are a lot of other Howard fans that would do the same to be able to play it on their iPods.
Once again, Sirius has absolutely nothing to lose by trying to test this out. No one is subscribing to Sirius to get the Reilly Martin show. At least now. If it was available as a paid pod-cast, and got popular, who knows?
Also, there are fans of Howard's old radio broadcast that simply were too cheap to pay for Sirius, or got angry because they had to. So why not toss those cheap bastards a bone. Make the Super Fan Roundtable free as a pod-cast on iTunes. Make the Intern Show free. Have a free daily Howard 100 new-cast.
Why? Why reward those Howard fans too fucking cheap to pay $12.95 a month for him? Well, if you're a drug dealer, why not give Artie some free snorts of heroin since he decided to give it up? Trust me, if you start putting Howard 100 news, and the Intern Show out there for free, you will do two things. You will make us Sirius subscribers very happy, since we can put it on our iPods, and you will make other old fans who aren't subscribing hungry for more. And when the walk in to buy a new car, they'll subscribe.
Finally, why not sell a weekly "Howard Stern Show Listener" pod-cast? Charge 99 cents for an hour highlights reel? Again, this is something that hard core fans would pay for in addition to subscribing, and could encourage other people to subscribe to Sirius to get the full real thing.
Okay, so I'm smart, but Howard is smarter. Why hasn't he and Mel already thought about all this? Why aren't they already doing it? It just makes too much sense to at least pod-cast some promos (like they did before the Sirius launch) for Howard and Mel to be ignoring the potential pod-casting to help Sirius sales. So what's going on?
I'll tell you. Howard did such a good job in moving subscribers to Sirius they didn't need to rush. And they had inside information about the "Next Big Thing."
Take a look at my next blog for a big announcement.
Monday, January 01, 2007
More on Sirius XM Merger
Brief pause in my iPod rant. Another article appeared today in the New York Times about a possible Sirius and XM merger. (Something I've been talking about for months.) Here's the link:
Loaded With Personalities, Now Satellite Radio May Try a Merger
They do give Howard his due right up front in the article. And there a lot of good stats in which detail how important auto sales are to both satellite broadcasters. (Estimates are that 70 percent of sales will come from new cars.) Cars are definitely where the technology really shines. Which again, would indicate that some testing of a podcast of Howard's show shouldn't hurt Sirius sales.
So what would a merger mean to Howard's fans? Would they suddenly have to switch services or buy new hardware? Nope. Easiest thing would be for both broadcasters to continue broadcasting but slowly merge the programming. New hardware could then be developed that could read both signals, and pick the strongest one.
As I've said before, this merger isn't a question of if, it's a question of when.
Sunday, December 31, 2006
To Podcast or Not to Podcast: Part 1
Never in the history of Howard Stern have his fans had so much opportunity to enjoy, wallow in, and be obsessed with his show and universe.
We can listen to his show, repeats of his show, and discussion of his show on live radio 24 hours a day on 2 Sirius channels. We can read about and comment on his show 24 hours a day on the internet on forums such as the Stern Fan Network (www.sternfannetwork.com). And we can watch videos of his show, and other wacky stuff, 24 hours a day on Howard TV from on-demand cable networks.
So what more do we want?
A lot. We want podcasting. We want to be able to download Howard's show every day, and any other Howard 100 or 101 show, and load it onto our gorgeous iPods.
But that will never happen. Or will it? As usual, it's all up to Howard.
Most indications are that Howard isn't interested in podcasting. Certainly, if he wanted to he could be doing it already. The technology is very simple. He could set up an RSS feed on his website in a heart beat. The iTunes store would welcome him instantly and charge 99 cents for each show. But instead Howard has said that the Stilleto is a better Christmas gift than the iPod because it comes with content attached as opposed to the iPod which comes empty. (Which is quite true and also applies to the cheaper S50.) So if the Stilleto is better, why would Howard support the iPod? Wouldn't that just hurt Stilleto sales and also Sirius subscription sales?
But podcasting is a technology, and a medium, that no one can just dismiss, even Mr. Howard Stern.
Sirius satellite broadcasting is also great technology, and a great medium, but it can't do everything. (Video for example.) And the Stilleto does some things better than the iPod, and other things worse.
What Sirius does great is broadcasting. What is does best is replace your car radio. Once you get one in your car, you'll never listen to regular radio again. The music is commercial free, the signal is digital and available anywhere in the country, and there is a ton of content instantly available including Howard Stern.
Also, get a Stilleto or a S50 and hook up a home system, and you also have a great replacement for radio listening. Sure, it's a little annoying you need to be connected by wire to an outside antenna, but once you get one hooked up you forget about it. And with the Stilleto you can also listen live over the internet without a wire.
But when it comes to truly portable listening, Sirius can't fully compete with the iPod. Apple's manufacturing and design are just going to be better for the immediate future. (The new iPod shuffle is the size of a match book.) And the fact that the iPod doesn't need an antenna, or the hardware for receiving broadcasting, is always going to mean it will be smaller, and lighter and it's batteries will last longer. Moreover, the iPod isn't simply a listening device. The larger models do video and are basically a small computer with dates, addresses and games. Before long it looks like the iPod will also be offered with phone features. It's unlikely Sirius will be able to catch up to it for years to come.
On top of that, Sirius hardware, at least now, isn't good at time shifting. Technically, you can program your Stilleto to record a program at a certain time and date, and even repeat that every week. But it's kind of a pain in the ass to do. Most people can't program their VCR's, so it's not likely that feature is going to be used much. Moreover, if you are moving your Stilleto back and forth from your car (which is it's best use) you have to remember to pull it out and put it back in it's receiver so it can record a show for you later. It's a pain and it's why I have never been able to record and listen to Reilly Martin's crazy show on Howard 101, despite the fact that I keep wanting to.
Podcasting is not broadcasting. It's entire strength is in time shifting, or more importantly, audio on demand. You get what you want when you want it very easily with no programming. You simply go to an internet site, copy the RSS feed, and iTune's takes it from there. Or if the podcast is on iTunes, you simply click and it is instantly sent to you, and you can instantly subscribe. Right now, Sirius simply can't compete with podcasting for that kind of convenience.
If Howard were to put his daily show up on iTunes, and charge 99 cents an episode, it would instantly be the hottest thing on the iTunes store. He would get millions of hits and since most of the money collected by Apple goes to the owner of the recording, it could mean millions in revenue a week.
But wouldn't that just cannibalize sales of Sirius hardware and subscriptions? I don't think so. In fact, I think there is an argument to be made that it might help increase Sirius sales and market share. That's because the iPod also has limitations. It does not receive broadcasting, Sirius's strength. And it doesn't work so well in a car, it's kind of a pain in the ass to hook it up. Also, when you're driving you time shifting isn't so much of an issue. It's like the difference between watching broadcast TV and playing a DVD. When you watch TV you expect something, anything to be on, and then you can surf around to see what you like. This is also a strong strength of Sirius. It's great for surfing because it offers so many channels. While driving your mood changes and sometimes you want to listen to music, sometimes to news, or to Howard. (Mostly Howard.) This is one of the reasons that Howard quickly found out that repeats of his show were more popular than putting on other shows that he produced that weren't up to the quality of his main broadcast. When you're broadcasting repeating your best stuff over and over works better than having a large variety of material of various quality.
Moreover, from a simply economic standpoint, Sirius is a much better value than buying content off iTunes. At 99 cents a show, a fan would be paying about 30 dollars a month for just a small part of the Howard content they get from Sirius at $12.95 a month (and it's even cheaper for longer subscriptions). Making the show available might actually increase the value of Sirius in the eyes of Howard's fans. The beauty of this is that fans who don't have a lot of money would quickly realize it is cheaper to subscribe to Sirius. Fans who do have money would probably pay twice. They would have a subscription for use in their car and also download shows onto their computers for portable use.
So if it makes so much sense, why doesn't Howard do it? We'll talk about that in Part Two of this article. (Hey! I'm trying to post more often and I'm long winded! Give me a fucking break!)
Mary DeSade
We can listen to his show, repeats of his show, and discussion of his show on live radio 24 hours a day on 2 Sirius channels. We can read about and comment on his show 24 hours a day on the internet on forums such as the Stern Fan Network (www.sternfannetwork.com). And we can watch videos of his show, and other wacky stuff, 24 hours a day on Howard TV from on-demand cable networks.
So what more do we want?
A lot. We want podcasting. We want to be able to download Howard's show every day, and any other Howard 100 or 101 show, and load it onto our gorgeous iPods.
But that will never happen. Or will it? As usual, it's all up to Howard.
Most indications are that Howard isn't interested in podcasting. Certainly, if he wanted to he could be doing it already. The technology is very simple. He could set up an RSS feed on his website in a heart beat. The iTunes store would welcome him instantly and charge 99 cents for each show. But instead Howard has said that the Stilleto is a better Christmas gift than the iPod because it comes with content attached as opposed to the iPod which comes empty. (Which is quite true and also applies to the cheaper S50.) So if the Stilleto is better, why would Howard support the iPod? Wouldn't that just hurt Stilleto sales and also Sirius subscription sales?
But podcasting is a technology, and a medium, that no one can just dismiss, even Mr. Howard Stern.
Sirius satellite broadcasting is also great technology, and a great medium, but it can't do everything. (Video for example.) And the Stilleto does some things better than the iPod, and other things worse.
What Sirius does great is broadcasting. What is does best is replace your car radio. Once you get one in your car, you'll never listen to regular radio again. The music is commercial free, the signal is digital and available anywhere in the country, and there is a ton of content instantly available including Howard Stern.
Also, get a Stilleto or a S50 and hook up a home system, and you also have a great replacement for radio listening. Sure, it's a little annoying you need to be connected by wire to an outside antenna, but once you get one hooked up you forget about it. And with the Stilleto you can also listen live over the internet without a wire.
But when it comes to truly portable listening, Sirius can't fully compete with the iPod. Apple's manufacturing and design are just going to be better for the immediate future. (The new iPod shuffle is the size of a match book.) And the fact that the iPod doesn't need an antenna, or the hardware for receiving broadcasting, is always going to mean it will be smaller, and lighter and it's batteries will last longer. Moreover, the iPod isn't simply a listening device. The larger models do video and are basically a small computer with dates, addresses and games. Before long it looks like the iPod will also be offered with phone features. It's unlikely Sirius will be able to catch up to it for years to come.
On top of that, Sirius hardware, at least now, isn't good at time shifting. Technically, you can program your Stilleto to record a program at a certain time and date, and even repeat that every week. But it's kind of a pain in the ass to do. Most people can't program their VCR's, so it's not likely that feature is going to be used much. Moreover, if you are moving your Stilleto back and forth from your car (which is it's best use) you have to remember to pull it out and put it back in it's receiver so it can record a show for you later. It's a pain and it's why I have never been able to record and listen to Reilly Martin's crazy show on Howard 101, despite the fact that I keep wanting to.
Podcasting is not broadcasting. It's entire strength is in time shifting, or more importantly, audio on demand. You get what you want when you want it very easily with no programming. You simply go to an internet site, copy the RSS feed, and iTune's takes it from there. Or if the podcast is on iTunes, you simply click and it is instantly sent to you, and you can instantly subscribe. Right now, Sirius simply can't compete with podcasting for that kind of convenience.
If Howard were to put his daily show up on iTunes, and charge 99 cents an episode, it would instantly be the hottest thing on the iTunes store. He would get millions of hits and since most of the money collected by Apple goes to the owner of the recording, it could mean millions in revenue a week.
But wouldn't that just cannibalize sales of Sirius hardware and subscriptions? I don't think so. In fact, I think there is an argument to be made that it might help increase Sirius sales and market share. That's because the iPod also has limitations. It does not receive broadcasting, Sirius's strength. And it doesn't work so well in a car, it's kind of a pain in the ass to hook it up. Also, when you're driving you time shifting isn't so much of an issue. It's like the difference between watching broadcast TV and playing a DVD. When you watch TV you expect something, anything to be on, and then you can surf around to see what you like. This is also a strong strength of Sirius. It's great for surfing because it offers so many channels. While driving your mood changes and sometimes you want to listen to music, sometimes to news, or to Howard. (Mostly Howard.) This is one of the reasons that Howard quickly found out that repeats of his show were more popular than putting on other shows that he produced that weren't up to the quality of his main broadcast. When you're broadcasting repeating your best stuff over and over works better than having a large variety of material of various quality.
Moreover, from a simply economic standpoint, Sirius is a much better value than buying content off iTunes. At 99 cents a show, a fan would be paying about 30 dollars a month for just a small part of the Howard content they get from Sirius at $12.95 a month (and it's even cheaper for longer subscriptions). Making the show available might actually increase the value of Sirius in the eyes of Howard's fans. The beauty of this is that fans who don't have a lot of money would quickly realize it is cheaper to subscribe to Sirius. Fans who do have money would probably pay twice. They would have a subscription for use in their car and also download shows onto their computers for portable use.
So if it makes so much sense, why doesn't Howard do it? We'll talk about that in Part Two of this article. (Hey! I'm trying to post more often and I'm long winded! Give me a fucking break!)
Mary DeSade
Wednesday, December 27, 2006
You Tube, My Space and Howard Stern
On my "Hollywood is Dead" blog I just wrote about the significance of Time magazine making "You" (mostly You Tube and My Space) its "Man of the Year" because of the impact of regular people networking and creating their own content:
http://hollywoodisdead.blogspot.com/2006/12/wired-article-about-you-tube.html
But something Time doesn't mention is that Howard Stern has been on the fore front of this movement for some time. Long before You Tube was the darling of the mainstream press, Howard had his film festival where he invited fans from around the world to create shorts about his show. The results, frankly were amazing. Some incredibly high quality content created by fans on their own and for almost no money.
And long before You Tube even existed, Howard was playing audio clips of song parodies and prank calls created by his fans. The same technology that makes it easier for people to make their own films and music, makes it easier for Howard's fans to participate directly with the show, and Howard has from the very beginning understood and taken advantage of this growing phenomena. Before people even new it was a phenomena.
Moreover, Howard's fans have always been big on networking with each other, not only creating their own web pages and blogs but jumping into My Space very early.
So while a lot of the mainstream media are scared by this new development, Howard has already embraced it and profited by it. Of course, one area where Howard's empire could use some work is his own website and online offerings. While Howard's site does a far job of keeping up with general info, and it's great for seeing pictures of girls and guest moments after they've been on the air, it has almost no video content and isn't updated as much as it could be.
There's no reason Howard couldn't turn it into his own version of My Space and You Tube combined. Would this threaten fan generated signs like SFN and Marks Friggin? No, I think it could enhance them. And there are a lot of ways Howard could benefit from a much more expansive howardstern.com. The easiest and most profitable might be by offering subscriptions for My Space, Flicka, You Tube type offerings. Like My Space and You Tube it could be self policing with a little adult supervision.
My Space, frankly, sucks these days. It's covered with advertising and incredibly slow. You Tube is nice, but the technology behind it is improving rapidly and it wouldn't be hard to build something even better. It would be great if Howard fans had a place to share videos, audio, pictures and profiles in one easy interface. It could be offered for a couple bucks a month to Sirius subscribers, more for people who don't subscribe.
Or it could be offered as a bonus to subscribers, and might even encourage more people to join Sirius. If the hot viral video on the web is only available on howardstern.com and you want to see it, then you have to join Sirius.
Building up his website probably isn't a major priority for Howard right now, but I predict in future, as web content continues to grow in importance, we'll see a major upgrade.
Mary DeSade
http://hollywoodisdead.blogspot.com/2006/12/wired-article-about-you-tube.html
But something Time doesn't mention is that Howard Stern has been on the fore front of this movement for some time. Long before You Tube was the darling of the mainstream press, Howard had his film festival where he invited fans from around the world to create shorts about his show. The results, frankly were amazing. Some incredibly high quality content created by fans on their own and for almost no money.
And long before You Tube even existed, Howard was playing audio clips of song parodies and prank calls created by his fans. The same technology that makes it easier for people to make their own films and music, makes it easier for Howard's fans to participate directly with the show, and Howard has from the very beginning understood and taken advantage of this growing phenomena. Before people even new it was a phenomena.
Moreover, Howard's fans have always been big on networking with each other, not only creating their own web pages and blogs but jumping into My Space very early.
So while a lot of the mainstream media are scared by this new development, Howard has already embraced it and profited by it. Of course, one area where Howard's empire could use some work is his own website and online offerings. While Howard's site does a far job of keeping up with general info, and it's great for seeing pictures of girls and guest moments after they've been on the air, it has almost no video content and isn't updated as much as it could be.
There's no reason Howard couldn't turn it into his own version of My Space and You Tube combined. Would this threaten fan generated signs like SFN and Marks Friggin? No, I think it could enhance them. And there are a lot of ways Howard could benefit from a much more expansive howardstern.com. The easiest and most profitable might be by offering subscriptions for My Space, Flicka, You Tube type offerings. Like My Space and You Tube it could be self policing with a little adult supervision.
My Space, frankly, sucks these days. It's covered with advertising and incredibly slow. You Tube is nice, but the technology behind it is improving rapidly and it wouldn't be hard to build something even better. It would be great if Howard fans had a place to share videos, audio, pictures and profiles in one easy interface. It could be offered for a couple bucks a month to Sirius subscribers, more for people who don't subscribe.
Or it could be offered as a bonus to subscribers, and might even encourage more people to join Sirius. If the hot viral video on the web is only available on howardstern.com and you want to see it, then you have to join Sirius.
Building up his website probably isn't a major priority for Howard right now, but I predict in future, as web content continues to grow in importance, we'll see a major upgrade.
Mary DeSade
Sunday, December 24, 2006
Mary Seriously
Gotten a lot of positive e-mails about the blog, but most keep asking why I don't post more often.
Sorry, but I only post when I feel that I have something "serious" to say about Howard, and I do a lot of research to back up what I say, and that takes time. Please understand, this is not an everyday blog or even a weekly blog. I blog when I have a serious opinion about something specific and try to work hard to explain and defend my opinion.
It wouldn't be hard for me to toss up day to day gossips about Robin being willing to press the button to zap Sal's nuts. (Which was great. A true art performance.) But there is tons of that already on the web in regards to Howard. I know it might sound crazy, but I am seriously worried about the historical record of Howard's show rather than up to the minute news. Even after this blog goes away, and Howard sadly goes away, the internet is being carefully stored for future generations and historians. When a scholar searches it trying to understand who the hell Howard Stern was, I hope they will find this blog and understand he was more than a popular entertainer. He is one of the most important artists of our time.
Mary DeSade
Sunday, December 10, 2006
A Disappointing Christmas
Howard and the press have been talking about the news that Sirius is warning that retails sales (while still growing) are growing slower than expected. Of course this gives Howard bashers some fresh meat to attack him and gives Howard fresh meat to bash the Howard bashers.
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/dec2006/pi20061205_255453.htm
But this one has nothing to do with Howard. Howard has done his job and continues to do his job in bringing his old fans and new fans to Sirius. Five million have followed in less than a year from his switch and Sirius's continuing retail sales now top XM month by month. This is a complete reversal from before Howard moved to satellite.
But Howard can only do so much. Satellite radio is still a very new technology. And there a still bugs to be worked out before it can really take off. Which leads us to the real reason Sirius had to revise it's sales numbers:
The Stiletto.
This device was suppose to be the holy grail for Howard and Sirius fans and drive a ton of sales. Pre-orders were in orbit. But once the product actually came out, things went back to Earth. The reviews have almost all been extremely negative. What should have been the best Christmas gift this season, is dying from bad word of mouth. Sirius really blew a huge chance with some very foolish mistakes.
Now, let me start by saying I bought one, and I use it every day and love it. But there are some serious problems with it that could have easily been avoided or at least should have been mentioned before the buzz turned from positive to negative.
The biggest is the headset. It's just terrible. You simply can't use it. The earphones, as have widely been reviewed, simply hurt your ears just minutes after trying them out. It's a very weird design and I can't understand how it ever got put into production. Even if you are willing to endure the pain in order to get your outdoor fix of Howard, the reception, as widely reported, is terrible too. I live in the heart of Hollywood and the reception goes in an out every fifteen seconds. (Sirius doesn't have a repeater in Los Angeles?)
Also, like all Sirius hardware, the design isn't the best and it feels very chunky in comparison to an iPod. The battery life isn't great. For walking, I've gone back to my pre-recording on my S50 through my home dock and just time shifting. It's a real shame I can't listen live outside. I would not have hurt to dampen expectations on this front until the bugs were worked out.
But one thing that Sirius did do right is the internet connection. It's seamless and I can listen to Howard now inside my home off the internet. (Using my own headphones, which thankfully work.) I've heard complaints about the sound quality, perhaps that's true for music, but for Howard's show it's perfectly fine. Only downside of this, and I assume it for some stupid legal reason, you can't record off the internet. But at least I can now listen live anywhere inside my home or office. Once I get a car connection I think it will be worth the price. Anyhow, I'm not disappointed I bought a Stiletto, but I am disappointed from what I hoped it would be.
Which gets us back to lowering sales expectations. If the Stiletto had been what I hoped for, I would have bought several to give as gifts. But that's not going to happen now. The Stiletto improved in some ways on the S50 but in other ways it didn't. Sirius just simply doesn't have it's hardware up to speed, and it's beta testing products on Howard's devoted fans. There is no doubt in my mind that Sirius will finally make some better products. (And get enough repeaters in Los Angeles!) They'll have to fix the bugs in the stiletto (especially the head phones) but mean while they encouraging Howard fans to wait for them to get their act together.
If they could come up with one really slick new radio, most of Howard's fans would all upgrade immediately and give them as gifts and spread the good word. So don't blame this short glitch in the rise of satellite on Howard. Howard's the greatest salesman in the world. But even he can only do so much with a mediocre product.
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/dec2006/pi20061205_255453.htm
But this one has nothing to do with Howard. Howard has done his job and continues to do his job in bringing his old fans and new fans to Sirius. Five million have followed in less than a year from his switch and Sirius's continuing retail sales now top XM month by month. This is a complete reversal from before Howard moved to satellite.
But Howard can only do so much. Satellite radio is still a very new technology. And there a still bugs to be worked out before it can really take off. Which leads us to the real reason Sirius had to revise it's sales numbers:
The Stiletto.
This device was suppose to be the holy grail for Howard and Sirius fans and drive a ton of sales. Pre-orders were in orbit. But once the product actually came out, things went back to Earth. The reviews have almost all been extremely negative. What should have been the best Christmas gift this season, is dying from bad word of mouth. Sirius really blew a huge chance with some very foolish mistakes.
Now, let me start by saying I bought one, and I use it every day and love it. But there are some serious problems with it that could have easily been avoided or at least should have been mentioned before the buzz turned from positive to negative.
The biggest is the headset. It's just terrible. You simply can't use it. The earphones, as have widely been reviewed, simply hurt your ears just minutes after trying them out. It's a very weird design and I can't understand how it ever got put into production. Even if you are willing to endure the pain in order to get your outdoor fix of Howard, the reception, as widely reported, is terrible too. I live in the heart of Hollywood and the reception goes in an out every fifteen seconds. (Sirius doesn't have a repeater in Los Angeles?)
Also, like all Sirius hardware, the design isn't the best and it feels very chunky in comparison to an iPod. The battery life isn't great. For walking, I've gone back to my pre-recording on my S50 through my home dock and just time shifting. It's a real shame I can't listen live outside. I would not have hurt to dampen expectations on this front until the bugs were worked out.
But one thing that Sirius did do right is the internet connection. It's seamless and I can listen to Howard now inside my home off the internet. (Using my own headphones, which thankfully work.) I've heard complaints about the sound quality, perhaps that's true for music, but for Howard's show it's perfectly fine. Only downside of this, and I assume it for some stupid legal reason, you can't record off the internet. But at least I can now listen live anywhere inside my home or office. Once I get a car connection I think it will be worth the price. Anyhow, I'm not disappointed I bought a Stiletto, but I am disappointed from what I hoped it would be.
Which gets us back to lowering sales expectations. If the Stiletto had been what I hoped for, I would have bought several to give as gifts. But that's not going to happen now. The Stiletto improved in some ways on the S50 but in other ways it didn't. Sirius just simply doesn't have it's hardware up to speed, and it's beta testing products on Howard's devoted fans. There is no doubt in my mind that Sirius will finally make some better products. (And get enough repeaters in Los Angeles!) They'll have to fix the bugs in the stiletto (especially the head phones) but mean while they encouraging Howard fans to wait for them to get their act together.
If they could come up with one really slick new radio, most of Howard's fans would all upgrade immediately and give them as gifts and spread the good word. So don't blame this short glitch in the rise of satellite on Howard. Howard's the greatest salesman in the world. But even he can only do so much with a mediocre product.
Sirius and XM Merger
So the main stream press is starting to buzz about something I predicted back in October, that is, that Sirius and XM are going to merge:
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/dec2006/tc20061208_079766.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_businessweek+exclusives
Trust me, this is not a question of if. It's simply a question of when. The fact that Sirius's sales growth is starting to slow only makes it more likely that this will happen sooner than later. (Because it becomes clear Sirius can't completely crush XM.) So if you haven't sold your Sirius stock, hold on to it. Because once these companies merge, satelite radio will be in a position to really take off.
The advantages in manufacturing one set of hardware, the savings in combining operations and not having to compete for talent are enormous. But also I think some of the hestitation in the public with adopting this new technology comes from confusion (among non-Howard fans) as to which system to buy. With that issue gone, it is simply a question, like it was in the early days of cable, as to whether you wanted it or not. With a merged company, I think you will find that the majority of people who purchase a car will go with a satelite subscription.
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/dec2006/tc20061208_079766.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_businessweek+exclusives
Trust me, this is not a question of if. It's simply a question of when. The fact that Sirius's sales growth is starting to slow only makes it more likely that this will happen sooner than later. (Because it becomes clear Sirius can't completely crush XM.) So if you haven't sold your Sirius stock, hold on to it. Because once these companies merge, satelite radio will be in a position to really take off.
The advantages in manufacturing one set of hardware, the savings in combining operations and not having to compete for talent are enormous. But also I think some of the hestitation in the public with adopting this new technology comes from confusion (among non-Howard fans) as to which system to buy. With that issue gone, it is simply a question, like it was in the early days of cable, as to whether you wanted it or not. With a merged company, I think you will find that the majority of people who purchase a car will go with a satelite subscription.
Wednesday, October 25, 2006
Testicle Ratings are Down
My good pal at TSS-Radio (see the ad) wants me to mention that Sirius is free today for everyone who wants to take an on-line test drive.
http://www.sirius.com/wo/Howard/freetrial.html
But frankly, fuck the test ride and just get Sirius. You won't regret it. And you can't do better than by ordering a radio on line from TSS-Radio. They have the best price and service and you'll have the lastest model sent to you a lot faster than you can find one by driving around town.
But back to my blog (if you fucking don't mind TSS-Radio).
There's been a lot of news, and a lot of discussion on Howard's show, about the fact that ratings are not only down for the stations in the morning time slot that Howard left, but they are down over all. That is not only in the mornings, but in the afternoons and around the clock.
Howard and others credit this to the "halo" effect. That is, that once someone sets their radio dial on a particular station because they like that program (Howard Stern) out of laziness they tend to listen to other programs on that station even when they know Howard isn't on (like in the afternoon).
Certainly, the "halo" effect is a problem for traditional broadcasters. A big problem.
But frankly, they face an even bigger one. That is the "you can get what you want when you want it" effect. And I think this is a much bigger problem than the "halo" effect.
Traditional radio is completely over. It's a dinasour. It's dead. Seriously.
The whole idea of a "morning show" and an "afternoon show" is dead. These are completely artifical creations that were set up by the stupid fucking conglomerates who didn't understand technology and didn't care about servicing their "captive" audiences.
The "morning show" was the most important revenue generator for traditional radio because it had so much of a captive audience of people making their commute. So they knew they had to put their best and brightest (Howard) into that time slot. For afternoons, they went for their second best and brightest (non-Howard). For all the other times they went for whatever idiots they could hire and pay shit.
The real reason ratings are dropping so fast is that the 5 million people who have abandoned traditonal radio for Sirius, now can get a wide variety of Howard programing (on two channels) 24 hours a day.
So why bother to listen to the second best guy in the afternoon? Regardless of the "halo" effect. Why the fuck would you listen to something that isn't as good as what you can get somewhere else?
And that's why traditional radio is so doomed. They like to talk about the fact that 280 million people can potentially listen to traditional radio (vs. 5 million Sirius subscribers). But the fact most people don't even listen to radio. Say… 200 million people. Sirius is also availible to any of those 280 million people who might be interested, and thanks to the internet, they don't even have to buy a radio.
Press reports put Howards "regular audience" (whatever that means) at 12 million. He's already stolen the five million hard care listeners not only from "morning radio" but from radio in general. He's adding more subscribers each day. The writing is already on the wall.
If you're in your car, morning, noon, or night and you're bored, you can listen to Howard. And that means all those number two guys (who really sucked) have lost their audience overnight.
Mary DeSade
http://www.sirius.com/wo/Howard/freetrial.html
But frankly, fuck the test ride and just get Sirius. You won't regret it. And you can't do better than by ordering a radio on line from TSS-Radio. They have the best price and service and you'll have the lastest model sent to you a lot faster than you can find one by driving around town.
But back to my blog (if you fucking don't mind TSS-Radio).
There's been a lot of news, and a lot of discussion on Howard's show, about the fact that ratings are not only down for the stations in the morning time slot that Howard left, but they are down over all. That is not only in the mornings, but in the afternoons and around the clock.
Howard and others credit this to the "halo" effect. That is, that once someone sets their radio dial on a particular station because they like that program (Howard Stern) out of laziness they tend to listen to other programs on that station even when they know Howard isn't on (like in the afternoon).
Certainly, the "halo" effect is a problem for traditional broadcasters. A big problem.
But frankly, they face an even bigger one. That is the "you can get what you want when you want it" effect. And I think this is a much bigger problem than the "halo" effect.
Traditional radio is completely over. It's a dinasour. It's dead. Seriously.
The whole idea of a "morning show" and an "afternoon show" is dead. These are completely artifical creations that were set up by the stupid fucking conglomerates who didn't understand technology and didn't care about servicing their "captive" audiences.
The "morning show" was the most important revenue generator for traditional radio because it had so much of a captive audience of people making their commute. So they knew they had to put their best and brightest (Howard) into that time slot. For afternoons, they went for their second best and brightest (non-Howard). For all the other times they went for whatever idiots they could hire and pay shit.
The real reason ratings are dropping so fast is that the 5 million people who have abandoned traditonal radio for Sirius, now can get a wide variety of Howard programing (on two channels) 24 hours a day.
So why bother to listen to the second best guy in the afternoon? Regardless of the "halo" effect. Why the fuck would you listen to something that isn't as good as what you can get somewhere else?
And that's why traditional radio is so doomed. They like to talk about the fact that 280 million people can potentially listen to traditional radio (vs. 5 million Sirius subscribers). But the fact most people don't even listen to radio. Say… 200 million people. Sirius is also availible to any of those 280 million people who might be interested, and thanks to the internet, they don't even have to buy a radio.
Press reports put Howards "regular audience" (whatever that means) at 12 million. He's already stolen the five million hard care listeners not only from "morning radio" but from radio in general. He's adding more subscribers each day. The writing is already on the wall.
If you're in your car, morning, noon, or night and you're bored, you can listen to Howard. And that means all those number two guys (who really sucked) have lost their audience overnight.
Mary DeSade
Sunday, October 08, 2006
Over 5 Million
Howard just announced that Sirius has now sold over five million radios and is on track to hit more than six million by the end of the year. It is now outselling XM almost two to one, a complete reverse from before Howard Stern announced his move. Sirius added 441,000 subscribers this quarter (up from 359,000 a year ago) and XM only added 285,000 (a shocking drop from 617,000 from a year ago). These numbers are even better news for Sirius when you consider that last years quarter took place when Howard was mounting a media blitz about his move to satellite and hard core fans were scrambling to buy radios to make sure they didn't miss a minute. Just months ago radio pundits were saying that all of all Howard's fans who would make the move had already done it. But sales haven't gone down, they've gone up. The other good news is, as I pointed out in a previous column, Sirius current hardware sucks. They're coming out with a new radio, the Stiletto, that is rumored to be amazing, has tons of new features, looks cool and is already heavily backordered. If Howard wanted to get a big jump in subscriptions he can do it almost instantly by going on the PR circuit. He's the greatest salesman in the world. But right now, he doesn't have to. Sirius will be selling every Stiletto that can manufacture for the foreseeable future.
While XM still has more subscribers, around 7 million, and is technically still growing, the size of it's growth is in a free-fall and shows no sign of stopping. Sirius should easily surpass it in total number of subscribers sometime next year. So it's not surprising that XM stocks are in the toilet.
But, some have said to me, if Sirius is doing so well, why isn't it stock up? Because the stock is Sirius Inc., not Howard Stern Inc. If it was Howard Stern Inc. it would be through the roof.
The news spinners for traditional radio say the reason the stocks are low is because the rise in subscriptions can't continue at the current pace. The Washington Post lumping the two together despite the huge differences.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/04/AR2006100401044.html
Well, obviously XM's growth isn't rising, but Sirius growth is up significantly and there reason to believe it won't continue.
But there is one area that investors should be concerned about. Programming costs. Howard cost Sirius $500 million for a five year deal and while he is worth every penny, it does put a drain on profitability since he and Super-agent Don Buchwald got a nice size chunk of the company. Moreover, but Sirius and XM are in a battle over sports rights, and it has cost them a fortune dueling over who would pay the most for baseball or football. XM stupidly paid $50 million for rights to Oprah and that is a complete waste of money. Sirius success is almost completely due to Howard because he is the only distinction between two great, but very similar products. And there's nothing stopping Howard from retiring in five years, going back to traditional radio (which he will never do, but investors have no promise) or even switching to XM for a huge chunk of that company. (You know for a fact that if XM could do it over, they would have paid twice as much to get Howard.)
So time to sell your Sirius stock? Nope, hold on to it, in fact, buy a bunch more because I have an announcement to make. Sirius and XM are going to merge.
What, you say, you haven't heard that? Why hasn't Howard announced it? Do I have the inside scoop or is it just a rumor?
No, I don't have any information about negotiations, but I do know it will happen. Why? Because the business economics just makes too much sense.
While Sirius is rapidly gaining on XM, XM is still growing, at least a little, and expects to reach 8 million that year. Together, their audience would instantly be 14 Million. That's a huge leap. Moreover, they wouldn't be force to compete for content, would be able to offer all sports on one service. That would make the argument for subscribing even more compelling.
Also they would save a fortune on R & D and manufacturing costs, distribution and sales and become available in all car brands. There wouldn't be much government objection to a merger and their are no FCC rules to stop it. It just makes too much sense for them to merge.
So why haven't they already? Because XM thought it would win. When they both came out, XM looked like the winning horse. Why would it merge with a rival that was probably going to fail. But with Sirius rapidly catching up, XM has to be concerned. If Sirius continues to grow at the current rate, it will surpass XM by next year. If that continues, in a couple more years it's XM might go completely under. And already it's management is in turmoil while Sirius management is in the hands of one of the best men in the broadcasting business, Mel Karmazin.
So then why shouldn't Sirius just hold out and figure that XM will get Betamaxed? They could. And once it went under they would have the benefit of less competition. But XM's 7 million subscribers is still a lot of subscribers, and Sirius is under pressure from shareholders to offer them results as quickly as possible. And since shares of both companies are undervalued, in my opinion, it won't be hard to make a deal.
I predict the companies will merge with in a couple years. Definitely with in four years. Why? Because, of course, of Howard.
When Howard's contract comes up, if they haven't already merged, there is a huge danger that Howard could over to switch to XM for even more that the 500 million he has already gotten. There's even the danger that Howard would start his own satellite company or a new startup. He has already proven what he can do in bringing an audience into a new medium.
Not only with Sirius and XM merge, but they'll also have to give Howard a huge chunk of the new company too keep him happy and not rock the boat. If you think Howard hit the jack pot with his old deal, wait till you hear about the new one. As I've said before, it won't surprise me if he ends up owning most of the company.
And then it really would be Howard Stern Inc. And that's a stock worth betting on.
While XM still has more subscribers, around 7 million, and is technically still growing, the size of it's growth is in a free-fall and shows no sign of stopping. Sirius should easily surpass it in total number of subscribers sometime next year. So it's not surprising that XM stocks are in the toilet.
But, some have said to me, if Sirius is doing so well, why isn't it stock up? Because the stock is Sirius Inc., not Howard Stern Inc. If it was Howard Stern Inc. it would be through the roof.
The news spinners for traditional radio say the reason the stocks are low is because the rise in subscriptions can't continue at the current pace. The Washington Post lumping the two together despite the huge differences.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/04/AR2006100401044.html
Well, obviously XM's growth isn't rising, but Sirius growth is up significantly and there reason to believe it won't continue.
But there is one area that investors should be concerned about. Programming costs. Howard cost Sirius $500 million for a five year deal and while he is worth every penny, it does put a drain on profitability since he and Super-agent Don Buchwald got a nice size chunk of the company. Moreover, but Sirius and XM are in a battle over sports rights, and it has cost them a fortune dueling over who would pay the most for baseball or football. XM stupidly paid $50 million for rights to Oprah and that is a complete waste of money. Sirius success is almost completely due to Howard because he is the only distinction between two great, but very similar products. And there's nothing stopping Howard from retiring in five years, going back to traditional radio (which he will never do, but investors have no promise) or even switching to XM for a huge chunk of that company. (You know for a fact that if XM could do it over, they would have paid twice as much to get Howard.)
So time to sell your Sirius stock? Nope, hold on to it, in fact, buy a bunch more because I have an announcement to make. Sirius and XM are going to merge.
What, you say, you haven't heard that? Why hasn't Howard announced it? Do I have the inside scoop or is it just a rumor?
No, I don't have any information about negotiations, but I do know it will happen. Why? Because the business economics just makes too much sense.
While Sirius is rapidly gaining on XM, XM is still growing, at least a little, and expects to reach 8 million that year. Together, their audience would instantly be 14 Million. That's a huge leap. Moreover, they wouldn't be force to compete for content, would be able to offer all sports on one service. That would make the argument for subscribing even more compelling.
Also they would save a fortune on R & D and manufacturing costs, distribution and sales and become available in all car brands. There wouldn't be much government objection to a merger and their are no FCC rules to stop it. It just makes too much sense for them to merge.
So why haven't they already? Because XM thought it would win. When they both came out, XM looked like the winning horse. Why would it merge with a rival that was probably going to fail. But with Sirius rapidly catching up, XM has to be concerned. If Sirius continues to grow at the current rate, it will surpass XM by next year. If that continues, in a couple more years it's XM might go completely under. And already it's management is in turmoil while Sirius management is in the hands of one of the best men in the broadcasting business, Mel Karmazin.
So then why shouldn't Sirius just hold out and figure that XM will get Betamaxed? They could. And once it went under they would have the benefit of less competition. But XM's 7 million subscribers is still a lot of subscribers, and Sirius is under pressure from shareholders to offer them results as quickly as possible. And since shares of both companies are undervalued, in my opinion, it won't be hard to make a deal.
I predict the companies will merge with in a couple years. Definitely with in four years. Why? Because, of course, of Howard.
When Howard's contract comes up, if they haven't already merged, there is a huge danger that Howard could over to switch to XM for even more that the 500 million he has already gotten. There's even the danger that Howard would start his own satellite company or a new startup. He has already proven what he can do in bringing an audience into a new medium.
Not only with Sirius and XM merge, but they'll also have to give Howard a huge chunk of the new company too keep him happy and not rock the boat. If you think Howard hit the jack pot with his old deal, wait till you hear about the new one. As I've said before, it won't surprise me if he ends up owning most of the company.
And then it really would be Howard Stern Inc. And that's a stock worth betting on.
Tuesday, September 26, 2006
How Can You Go Wrong Paying 50 Million to a Closet Lesbian?
Howard has known for many years that lesbianism sells.
So if you're trying to get people to use a new technology, go for some girl on girl action. It worked for the VCR, for DVD's, for the internet. And even worked for broadcast radio until the FCC shut Howard down.
But now that we have satellite radio, free of FCC restrictions, why not give a show to a couple lesbian chicks giving us the inside story on their forbidden love. Sounds like great radio to me.
The only problem is that the dikes XM hired was Oprah (mommy) and her submissive girlfriend, sex slave, Gayle.
http://www.tmz.com/2006/09/25/Oprah-lords-over-white-folk-talks-poop-on-xm/
Will they get 4 million subscribers to XM by using fart jokes and shit jokes like Howard? They seem to be trying, "Oprah moved onto her most recent favorite topic, excrement. O assured Gayle that the reason she doesn't have children wasn't that she can't deal with poo, or "pooty,"
Oh yeah, this crap is worth paying Oprah 50 million for. No wonder XM is in the fucking toilet. Oprah, why don't you tell us about how Gale licks your pussy and what it feels like? Or how much fun it is when you strap on and she calls you "daddy."
That will sell radios. Until then, you're good at selling shampoo. Come on, Oprah, get out of the fucking closet and we'll try to respect you again. Rosie O'Donnell already outed you on "The View." Fess up and then maybe you can earn XM some of the money you're getting.
So if you're trying to get people to use a new technology, go for some girl on girl action. It worked for the VCR, for DVD's, for the internet. And even worked for broadcast radio until the FCC shut Howard down.
But now that we have satellite radio, free of FCC restrictions, why not give a show to a couple lesbian chicks giving us the inside story on their forbidden love. Sounds like great radio to me.
The only problem is that the dikes XM hired was Oprah (mommy) and her submissive girlfriend, sex slave, Gayle.
http://www.tmz.com/2006/09/25/Oprah-lords-over-white-folk-talks-poop-on-xm/
Will they get 4 million subscribers to XM by using fart jokes and shit jokes like Howard? They seem to be trying, "Oprah moved onto her most recent favorite topic, excrement. O assured Gayle that the reason she doesn't have children wasn't that she can't deal with poo, or "pooty,"
Oh yeah, this crap is worth paying Oprah 50 million for. No wonder XM is in the fucking toilet. Oprah, why don't you tell us about how Gale licks your pussy and what it feels like? Or how much fun it is when you strap on and she calls you "daddy."
That will sell radios. Until then, you're good at selling shampoo. Come on, Oprah, get out of the fucking closet and we'll try to respect you again. Rosie O'Donnell already outed you on "The View." Fess up and then maybe you can earn XM some of the money you're getting.
Monday, September 25, 2006
$500 Million Reasons to Stay at Sirius and That's Just the Beginning
One of the goofy things about this "rumor" that Howard might return to traditional radio (planted by the traditional radio companies) is that Howard has a contract for five years to work for Sirius. So even if he wasn't happy (he is) with his fan base, there isn't anything he could do without permission from Sirius. And Sirius has no reason to cooperate with traditonal broadcasters just as it has overtaken XM and is rapidly gaining subscribers.
The lies about Howard being disappointed about his new audience are particularly silly for another reason.
Howard made a $500 million deal with Sirius with the promise of delivering 1 million subscribers.
Howard has delivered 3-4 million subscribers in just one year.
What's going to happen when Howard's contract comes up in five years? Even if we assume that Sirius doesn't continue to grow, that Howard's audience doesn't expand to ten or twenty million.
What if all Howard can do is four million subscribers, four times what his contract for $500 million required?
How much money can Howard ask from Sirius five years from now? Four times his last contract, 2 Billion dollars?
It wouldn't surprise me if Howard ends up owning Sirius.
The lies about Howard being disappointed about his new audience are particularly silly for another reason.
Howard made a $500 million deal with Sirius with the promise of delivering 1 million subscribers.
Howard has delivered 3-4 million subscribers in just one year.
What's going to happen when Howard's contract comes up in five years? Even if we assume that Sirius doesn't continue to grow, that Howard's audience doesn't expand to ten or twenty million.
What if all Howard can do is four million subscribers, four times what his contract for $500 million required?
How much money can Howard ask from Sirius five years from now? Four times his last contract, 2 Billion dollars?
It wouldn't surprise me if Howard ends up owning Sirius.
Saturday, September 23, 2006
4 Million Pieces of Crap
Why is broadcast radio terrified? They are attacking Howard in the press by saying the four million listeners who switched to Sirius in the last year is just a drop in the bucket of their 280 million listeners. But that's exactly why they're so scared. There's another 280 million potential new buyers who might also switch. Sirius has tremendous growth potential.
Sirius has sold four million radios so far. And there isn't any particular reason to think that eventually they might sell tens of millions every year. Apple has sold 50 million iPods since 2001.
One thing that has been holding back Sirius sales that there are shortages of their most popular players. They're selling them just about as fast as they can make them. But there is another thing that has been holding them back. Their radios are crap.
Don't get me wrong, satelite radio is great. It's digitial, you can get a signal anywhere in the United States. It has commerical free music and, most importantly, two channels of Howard Stern.
Unfortunately, the actual radios, the hardware being sold is pretty lousy. The radios are generally ugly, poorly designed and manufactured. I got a Starmate Replay and the LCD broke when I pushed my fingers too hard on it. I then bought the top of the line S50 and the buttons feel cheap and don't respond properly. Moreover, the S50 is suppose to be portable, but you can't listen to Sirius live, you have to have pre-recorded the content. Recording is for some reason limited to 2 hour blocks. Overall, Sirius radios feel like cheaply made electronics from a Chinese knockoff company. These are not slick iPods.
This isn't too surprising. Before Howard announced he was moving to Sirius, the company was in deep trouble. It was losing money like crazy and had less that 600,000 listeners. It makes sense they didn't have the kind of money that Apple has to throw into the research and design of iPods let alone Apple's experience in manufacturing.
But thanks to Howard that's all about to change. 4 million new subscribers represents $40 million in cash a month flowing into Sirius, more than enough to upgrade their products.
And new products are coming, in particular the Stiletto, which looks much slicker and solves a lot of the problems with the S50 including the recording limit. It offers true portability.
Another key development is that the Stiletto will be the first radio that will be able to pick up Sirius in WiFi zones. This will expand the coverage of listening to inside buildings where the need of an antenna prevented fans from getting Sirius. This will mean that people all over the world will finally be able to hear Howard.
And that's the problem for traditional broadcast radio. Their core technology is completely outdated however pretty, cheap and availible their hardware is. That's why they're scrambling for HD radio, but the whole notion of radio being broadcast by individual stations across the country is outdated regardless of any changes they might try. It simply makes more sense to get radio from satelite, and the technology for getting it is simply going to keep improving.
Right now, over 4 million people were willing to buy crappy radios with lots of problems just to listen to Howard. But as the radios improve, people might actually start buying them because they are slick products. How long will it take before a large percentage of those 280 million traditional radio listeners switch over to satelite. It took Apple 5 years to get to 50 million iPod users. I think Sirius might get there a lot faster.
And that's another reason for Sirius to smile. They are not only in the cable television subscriber business (which is a very good business to be in) where they get monthy payments for the content they broadcast, but they are also in the hardware business like Apple. They come out with a cool new product like the Stiletto, and Howard's millions of fans would buy the new toy, AND keep subscribing. Heck, maybe they'll even give the old one to a friend who will then subscribe.
And Sirius has an advantage over Apple because of it's subscription model. When they come out with a new product, rather than discount the old hardware, they can simply give it away for free. As they already are doing with a lot of outdated crappy radios. But it's worth it in the long run for the subscription fees. And guess what, when those new listeners get hooked, they'll buy cooler new radios.
This also works for the retailers Sirius counts on for sales. They understand that this is a business where they can sell a new radio to an old customer anytime Sirius comes out with a cooler, sleeker, more fuctional product. It's a pretty neat trick to suddenly find yourself int the iPod and cable subscription business, to of the most profitable business to be in today.
Sirius has sold four million radios so far. And there isn't any particular reason to think that eventually they might sell tens of millions every year. Apple has sold 50 million iPods since 2001.
One thing that has been holding back Sirius sales that there are shortages of their most popular players. They're selling them just about as fast as they can make them. But there is another thing that has been holding them back. Their radios are crap.
Don't get me wrong, satelite radio is great. It's digitial, you can get a signal anywhere in the United States. It has commerical free music and, most importantly, two channels of Howard Stern.
Unfortunately, the actual radios, the hardware being sold is pretty lousy. The radios are generally ugly, poorly designed and manufactured. I got a Starmate Replay and the LCD broke when I pushed my fingers too hard on it. I then bought the top of the line S50 and the buttons feel cheap and don't respond properly. Moreover, the S50 is suppose to be portable, but you can't listen to Sirius live, you have to have pre-recorded the content. Recording is for some reason limited to 2 hour blocks. Overall, Sirius radios feel like cheaply made electronics from a Chinese knockoff company. These are not slick iPods.
This isn't too surprising. Before Howard announced he was moving to Sirius, the company was in deep trouble. It was losing money like crazy and had less that 600,000 listeners. It makes sense they didn't have the kind of money that Apple has to throw into the research and design of iPods let alone Apple's experience in manufacturing.
But thanks to Howard that's all about to change. 4 million new subscribers represents $40 million in cash a month flowing into Sirius, more than enough to upgrade their products.
And new products are coming, in particular the Stiletto, which looks much slicker and solves a lot of the problems with the S50 including the recording limit. It offers true portability.
Another key development is that the Stiletto will be the first radio that will be able to pick up Sirius in WiFi zones. This will expand the coverage of listening to inside buildings where the need of an antenna prevented fans from getting Sirius. This will mean that people all over the world will finally be able to hear Howard.
And that's the problem for traditional broadcast radio. Their core technology is completely outdated however pretty, cheap and availible their hardware is. That's why they're scrambling for HD radio, but the whole notion of radio being broadcast by individual stations across the country is outdated regardless of any changes they might try. It simply makes more sense to get radio from satelite, and the technology for getting it is simply going to keep improving.
Right now, over 4 million people were willing to buy crappy radios with lots of problems just to listen to Howard. But as the radios improve, people might actually start buying them because they are slick products. How long will it take before a large percentage of those 280 million traditional radio listeners switch over to satelite. It took Apple 5 years to get to 50 million iPod users. I think Sirius might get there a lot faster.
And that's another reason for Sirius to smile. They are not only in the cable television subscriber business (which is a very good business to be in) where they get monthy payments for the content they broadcast, but they are also in the hardware business like Apple. They come out with a cool new product like the Stiletto, and Howard's millions of fans would buy the new toy, AND keep subscribing. Heck, maybe they'll even give the old one to a friend who will then subscribe.
And Sirius has an advantage over Apple because of it's subscription model. When they come out with a new product, rather than discount the old hardware, they can simply give it away for free. As they already are doing with a lot of outdated crappy radios. But it's worth it in the long run for the subscription fees. And guess what, when those new listeners get hooked, they'll buy cooler new radios.
This also works for the retailers Sirius counts on for sales. They understand that this is a business where they can sell a new radio to an old customer anytime Sirius comes out with a cooler, sleeker, more fuctional product. It's a pretty neat trick to suddenly find yourself int the iPod and cable subscription business, to of the most profitable business to be in today.
Tuesday, September 19, 2006
Why is Howard Holding Back?
Howard's show was truly wonderful today and all the more because of a bunch of silly articles in the press. Particularly the absurd New York Post article by John Mainelli claiming Howard was unhappy with losing his huge traditional radio audience for the "relative obscurity of satellite." It was complete bullshit, but wonderful red meat for Howard to dig into.
Mainelli's article was particularly amusing because the press was just a few months ago claiming Howard's show wouldn't be interesting after he left traditional radio because he wouldn't have an "enemy" (the FCC) to rail against. Didn't take him long to find one, did it? He's railing against the New York Post and all the press that don't take him seriously.
Well, Howard, I take your seriously.
Howard destroyed all the arguments against his huge success in moving to satellite and pointed out accurately that traditional radio is scared shitless over his success and engaged in a massive campaign to try to discredit him.
But what Howard didn't admit to is that he knows the press is attacking him right now is because…
Of Howard.
News about Howard sells papers, it sells magazines, it sells internet sites. Any information about Howard is valuable. But Howard isn't providing it. Howard isn't making news. Howard has deliberately stopped making news. And something needs to fill that vacuum that he's created. Traditional broadcasters are filling it by sending out their goons to invent facts to say Howard's move isn't successful and that he might be returning to traditional radio.
But, you might ask, isn't Howard talking a lot? Isn't he broadcasting for hours every day talking his head off and attacking his enemies? Yes, but he's only doing his show. With a click of Howard's finger he could be all over every talk show, every newspaper, every magazine cover saying how successful his move to Sirius has been and trumpeting the death of broadcast radio.
But he isn't. Why not? Why isn't he pounding the PR pavement as Howard knows how to do better than anyone?
Because his move to Sirius was so hugely successful he doesn't need to. He promoted himself a lot when he first made the move, but he's selling just about every radio Sirius can make (there's still shortages). He more than fulfilled his contract which called for him to bring at least a million listeners over to Sirius. He's brought more than 4 million and counting. He's gotten his hundreds of millions in bonus money.
So while it may piss Howard off when people make up all this stuff, it really doesn't matter to him right now. Not enough to get him to waste his PR skills really trying to fight it. Moreover, Howard knows that it's a good thing not to over expose himself on talk shows and with press conferences so that it becomes more significant when he does go on tour.
So the very fact that the broadcasters lobbying machine can even get out its false message that Howard is missing the limelight (the watercooler talk) is only possible because Howard doesn't give a crap about the limelight. Howard is a brilliant businessman. He doesn't promote himself for attention, he promotes himself when he has something he wants to sell, a movie, a book, a record album or his radio show. But his show is so successful right now there is no reason to hype it.
Howard is deliberately holding back but don't think that he's gone for good. I suspect Howard is waiting for the next generation line of Sirius equipment. And then he'll put on his PR boxing gloves, go out and really kick some ass.
Mainelli's article was particularly amusing because the press was just a few months ago claiming Howard's show wouldn't be interesting after he left traditional radio because he wouldn't have an "enemy" (the FCC) to rail against. Didn't take him long to find one, did it? He's railing against the New York Post and all the press that don't take him seriously.
Well, Howard, I take your seriously.
Howard destroyed all the arguments against his huge success in moving to satellite and pointed out accurately that traditional radio is scared shitless over his success and engaged in a massive campaign to try to discredit him.
But what Howard didn't admit to is that he knows the press is attacking him right now is because…
Of Howard.
News about Howard sells papers, it sells magazines, it sells internet sites. Any information about Howard is valuable. But Howard isn't providing it. Howard isn't making news. Howard has deliberately stopped making news. And something needs to fill that vacuum that he's created. Traditional broadcasters are filling it by sending out their goons to invent facts to say Howard's move isn't successful and that he might be returning to traditional radio.
But, you might ask, isn't Howard talking a lot? Isn't he broadcasting for hours every day talking his head off and attacking his enemies? Yes, but he's only doing his show. With a click of Howard's finger he could be all over every talk show, every newspaper, every magazine cover saying how successful his move to Sirius has been and trumpeting the death of broadcast radio.
But he isn't. Why not? Why isn't he pounding the PR pavement as Howard knows how to do better than anyone?
Because his move to Sirius was so hugely successful he doesn't need to. He promoted himself a lot when he first made the move, but he's selling just about every radio Sirius can make (there's still shortages). He more than fulfilled his contract which called for him to bring at least a million listeners over to Sirius. He's brought more than 4 million and counting. He's gotten his hundreds of millions in bonus money.
So while it may piss Howard off when people make up all this stuff, it really doesn't matter to him right now. Not enough to get him to waste his PR skills really trying to fight it. Moreover, Howard knows that it's a good thing not to over expose himself on talk shows and with press conferences so that it becomes more significant when he does go on tour.
So the very fact that the broadcasters lobbying machine can even get out its false message that Howard is missing the limelight (the watercooler talk) is only possible because Howard doesn't give a crap about the limelight. Howard is a brilliant businessman. He doesn't promote himself for attention, he promotes himself when he has something he wants to sell, a movie, a book, a record album or his radio show. But his show is so successful right now there is no reason to hype it.
Howard is deliberately holding back but don't think that he's gone for good. I suspect Howard is waiting for the next generation line of Sirius equipment. And then he'll put on his PR boxing gloves, go out and really kick some ass.
Saturday, September 16, 2006
Siriusly Folks
So why start blog about Howard Stern? It isn't as if there isn't plenty of discussion already on the internet about Howard. There are dozens of fan websites, discussion boards and blogs already talking about every detail of his show. His radio show airs several times a day and is repeated frequently. You can check out video of his radio show on cable on demand or read blow by blow descriptions with pictures on his own website. Howard even as a large new team just to provide news about… Howard.
But despite all this, Howard gets no respect. He justifiably rails that the mainstream news media and broadcasting establishment are out to get him, and they are. There is plenty of gossip on the internet about Howard, but little in the way of serious discussion about his enormous impact on modern entertainment.
An example of this popped up just yesterday in a New York Times article "Changing Its Tune" by Richard Siklos.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/15/business/media/15radio.html?ex=1158984000&en=118701d3cd7c5227&ei=5070&emc=eta1
The article talks about the fact that radio listening has declined 14% in the last ten years and discusses the impact that new media, like satelite radio, is having on the industry. It mentions Howard twice, in passing, lumping him in with podcasting.
What is amazing about this is there is no direct evidence that podcasting is impacting radio audiences. For starters, my own opinion is that is that podcasting appeals to a very different audience than listens to traditional radio and it's impact has been small so far. Secondly, since radio stations can and are providing podcasts of their programming, podcasting won't have a negative effect on traditonal broadcasters and can in fact increase their potential audience. Certainly NPR stations are already benefitting because their shows are natural to podcast.
But Howard is different, his recent impact on the broadcast industry is huge and can be directly tracked. Just a few months ago the mainstream media was reporting when Howard left for satellite, over night eight to ten million people stopped listening to radio stations that had been broadcasting him.
When you talk about a 14% decline in listeners, how can you not give Howard's move credit for a huge part of that? Moreover, over the past ten years many stations were forced to dump Howard due to FCC pressure, and audiences fell off in all of those markets.
Siklos mentions that Sirius and XM have a combined audience of more than 11 million, later pointing out that it pales in comparison to the 230 million that are listening to traditional stations. But what he fails to mention is that at least 4 million of that audience was added in the last year almost solely due to Howard. That before Howard Sirius had an audience of less that half a million and now is on track to top out over five million. And there is no sign that there is any limit on how big that audience could get.
For 4 million people to suddenly pay monthly for something they got for free is astounding. How can any discussion of what is going on in radio today not talk about that incredible shift? Siklos manages to interview someone who bought a XM radio for their boat, but isn't going to talk about 4 million people paying hundreds of dollars adopting a new media system to listen to one person?
So that's what this blog is going to be about. In my own small way I'm going to try to correct the record on what's really going on with the Howard Stern empire with some serious discussion about his true impact.
Sorry, no fart jokes.
But despite all this, Howard gets no respect. He justifiably rails that the mainstream news media and broadcasting establishment are out to get him, and they are. There is plenty of gossip on the internet about Howard, but little in the way of serious discussion about his enormous impact on modern entertainment.
An example of this popped up just yesterday in a New York Times article "Changing Its Tune" by Richard Siklos.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/15/business/media/15radio.html?ex=1158984000&en=118701d3cd7c5227&ei=5070&emc=eta1
The article talks about the fact that radio listening has declined 14% in the last ten years and discusses the impact that new media, like satelite radio, is having on the industry. It mentions Howard twice, in passing, lumping him in with podcasting.
What is amazing about this is there is no direct evidence that podcasting is impacting radio audiences. For starters, my own opinion is that is that podcasting appeals to a very different audience than listens to traditional radio and it's impact has been small so far. Secondly, since radio stations can and are providing podcasts of their programming, podcasting won't have a negative effect on traditonal broadcasters and can in fact increase their potential audience. Certainly NPR stations are already benefitting because their shows are natural to podcast.
But Howard is different, his recent impact on the broadcast industry is huge and can be directly tracked. Just a few months ago the mainstream media was reporting when Howard left for satellite, over night eight to ten million people stopped listening to radio stations that had been broadcasting him.
When you talk about a 14% decline in listeners, how can you not give Howard's move credit for a huge part of that? Moreover, over the past ten years many stations were forced to dump Howard due to FCC pressure, and audiences fell off in all of those markets.
Siklos mentions that Sirius and XM have a combined audience of more than 11 million, later pointing out that it pales in comparison to the 230 million that are listening to traditional stations. But what he fails to mention is that at least 4 million of that audience was added in the last year almost solely due to Howard. That before Howard Sirius had an audience of less that half a million and now is on track to top out over five million. And there is no sign that there is any limit on how big that audience could get.
For 4 million people to suddenly pay monthly for something they got for free is astounding. How can any discussion of what is going on in radio today not talk about that incredible shift? Siklos manages to interview someone who bought a XM radio for their boat, but isn't going to talk about 4 million people paying hundreds of dollars adopting a new media system to listen to one person?
So that's what this blog is going to be about. In my own small way I'm going to try to correct the record on what's really going on with the Howard Stern empire with some serious discussion about his true impact.
Sorry, no fart jokes.
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